Will Venezuela take military action to claim the Essequibo region in Guyana?

According to Venezuelan officials, more than 10.5 million people voted in Sunday’s referendum to establish a Venezuelan state in Essequibo and grant Venezuelan citizenship to current and future residents.

Remember, legally Guyana has had complete sovereignty over the Essequibo region since the 1800s, when international arbitrators agreed on the boundaries of both countries. The region is roughly the size of the US state of Florida and makes up two-thirds of Guyana. 

And it is extremely oil and mineral-rich. 

That’s why the Venezuelan Government has escalated things this far. Guyana has discovered over 11 billion barrels of oil in the area since 2015 and is on track to becoming one of the top oil-producing countries in the world.

And we know that the oil industry is BIG business, and Venezuela is already a major oil producer.

Now the actual vote is a whole drama by itself.  Although the government says over 10 million people voted, Reuters news agency sent poll observers to Venezuela, who reported that there were barely any people in lines across the country.

There were definitely voters, but 10 million? 

However, according to the officials, the referendum passed and Venezuela is staking a claim on the region. 

So what happens next? 

Of course, this is going to trigger a lot of legal procedures, outrage and possibly military conflict.

Venezuelan military officials have already said they’ll be taking “concrete measures” to build an airstrip to support the development of Essequibo.

Guyana’s government had argued that the referendum was a move to annex part of their country.  They said they would defend the country by whatever means necessary. So they’re not going down without a fight. 

Meanwhile, the Brazilian military, which is literally in the middle of the dispute, has increased its operations at the northern border… just in case? 

Before the vote on Sunday, the International Court of Justice had ordered Venezuela not to take any action that would alter Guyana’s control over Essequibo, but Venezuela isn’t listening. 

It will be interesting to see what position CARICOM member-states take on this issue, given that the entire region benefited from Venezuelan oil under PetroCaribe just a few years ago.  However, Guyana is our CARICOM sister-country and the seat of CARICOM headquarters. 

So if push comes to shove, is CARICOM willing to send military support to Guyana against its old friend, Venezuela? … and that’s the bottom line.