The COVID-19 pandemic has erased four years of job gains in Jamaica.  There were135,000 fewer jobs in July 2020 than July 2019, according to the latest Labour Force Survey from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).

The lost jobs push Jamaica’s unemployment rate to almost 13%, a 4.8 point increase compared to the same period last year.

THE ANALYSTS said while the unemployment figures were not surprising, the lagged data could have skewed the wider impact of the pandemic. Young Investor at the University of the West Indies, David Rose said the cancellation of STATIN’s April labour force survey “masks some of that damage” as some persons were re-employed by the time field work started on the July survey.

The April survey was cancelled around the initial threat in COVID-19 cases, with the first case confirmed in March. “It could have potentially been higher when the country was at that peak during the missing data months,” said Rose.

However, Rose also predicted that some of the lost jobs will not be regained as some processes have been made more efficient to fit the new normal in a PC (Post-Covid) world.

Meanwhile, Investment Research and Sovereign Risk Management Analyst at Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB), Leovaughani Dillion pointed out that Jamaica’s rise in unemployment mirrors what’s happening on the global scene. In the United States, for example, their unemployment rate moved from around 3.6% in January to 10% in July.

“You saw an increase across the board”, said Dillion, reasoning that the focus now should be on the length of time it will take the country to recover and even surpass its pre-COVID gains.

It took some 6 years to reduce the jobless rate from a high of 16% at the start of the country’s robust economic reform programme in 2013 to a low of 7.2% last year, with the highlight of the previous Administration being the addition of 100,000 jobs between January 2016 and January 2020.

Dillion said while an unfortunate situation has occurred, the steep rise in joblessness “could have actually been a lot worse”.

Investment Analyst at PROVEN Wealth, Julian Morrison, agreed but reasoned that it will take a while for the country to get back on track with jobs, especially with a number of professions now becoming either obsolete or pressured from the ongoing restrictions to control the pandemic.

“We know we’re in it for the long haul,” said Morrison, reasoning that time will outlast the challenges.